Tuesday, April 08, 2008

Gregoire, Rossi, and polls

My local television station just reported that Gregoire has a slim 1 point lead in the polls over Rossi. What the television station failed to make clear (being the weak reporters they are) is that the polls have a 4% margin of error. This means that the real number is within 4% of the reported number. In other words, instead of a 1 point lead the correct report should be that Gregoire could have as much as a 5 point lead or a 3 point deficit.

Please take note that this may very well be the high water mark for the Rossi campaign. Dino has been campaigning for some months now while Gregoire has been taking care of business with the legislature in session. Only today did the Governor begin her campaign in earnest. Now the money can start coming in and she can start putting her message out there. Dino has been raising money and actively campaigning unopposed.

The governor has become more popular since her election by proving to be capable and effective in dealing with problems that have plagued the state for years. Dino still thinks he is on a level playing field. He has nothing new to offer, no accomplishments to tout. He is still using the same tired message he used when they both were untested in the executive office. Now that Chris has started her campaign Rossi has to share the stage. On that stage next to Chris stands a record of actions that can drown his plaintive voice. His numbers are going nowhere but south.

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