Tuesday, May 31, 2022

Anti-Crime Success Stories

It seem that therapy and a bit of cash can turn at-risk youth around.

Sustainable Transformation of Youth in Liberia. It offered men who were at high risk for violent crime eight weeks of cognitive behavioral therapy. CBT, as it’s called, is a popular, evidence-based method of dealing with issues like anxiety, but Borh adapted the therapeutic strategy to deal with issues like violence and crime.

Meeting with a counselor in groups of around 20, the men would practice specific behavioral changes, like managing anger and exerting self-control. They’d also rehearse trying on a new identity unconnected to their past behavior, by changing their clothes and haircuts and working to reintegrate themselves into mainstream society through community sports, banks, and more.

The 999 Liberian men were split into four groups. Some received CBT, while others got $200 in cash. Another group got the CBT plus the cash, and finally, there was a control group that got neither.

A month after the intervention, both the therapy group and the therapy-plus-cash group were showing positive results. A year after the intervention, the positive effects on those who got therapy alone had faded a bit, but those who got therapy plus cash were still showing huge impacts: crime and violence were down about 50 percent.

But Blattman didn’t dare to hope that this impact would persist. Experts he surveyed predicted that the effects would steeply diminish over the years, as they do in many interventions.

So it was a great surprise when, 10 years later, he tracked down the original men from the study and reevaluated them. Amazingly, crime and violence were still down by about 50 percent in the therapy-plus-cash group.

Monday, May 30, 2022

EV Consequences

California's mandate to move to electric vehicles will probably put lots of auto mechanics out of jobs. (But that's happening anyway since all modern vehicles need less maintenance than their older predecessors.)

In an effort to transform to a carbon-neutral, climate-friendly state, California’s proposal to phase out all new gas-powered cars by 2035 will drive a wide-ranging transition of the workforce.

Throughout the economy, an estimated 64,700 jobs will be lost because of the mandate, according to the California Air Resources Board’s calculations. On the other hand, an estimated 24,900 jobs would be gained in other sectors, so the estimated net loss is 39,800 jobs, a minimal amount across the state’s entire economy, by 2040.

Blue Island in Austin

The city of Austin moves to reduce the harm of Texas' anti-abortion laws

The new resolution doesn’t explicitly decriminalize abortion but rather directs police to make it their lowest enforcement priority in an effort to skirt conflict with state law, Vela said. But it highlights the tension between red state and the blue cities, where a new front in the battle over abortion rights is opening as the Supreme Court prepares to issue a decision on Roe in the coming weeks.

Friday, May 27, 2022

Nuclear Waste Powered Implants

 Imagine an implanted artificial neuron powered by a tiny nuclear diamond.

Arkenlight has been working with French company Axorus, to explore the possibility of using betavoltaic microbatteries to power the artificial neurons Axorus has been developing.

These artificial neurons are designed to slot into a patient's nervous system and perform a variety of functions, based around their ability to communicate with biological neurons, "listening" to signals sent by other neurons and other systems, and sending signals of their own where required. "It is a CMOS circuit," reads the company's website, "up to 1,000 times more energy-efficient and up to 10x smaller than a biological neuron. Its very high sensitivity makes it ideal for medical implants."

Wednesday, May 25, 2022

How to Reduce Shootings

 There are some common-sense measures we can take an firearms.

Gun enthusiasts often protest: Cars kill about as many people as guns, and we don’t ban them! No, but automobiles are actually a model for the public health approach I’m suggesting.

We don’t ban cars, but we work hard to regulate them — and limit access to them — so as to reduce the death toll they cause. This has been spectacularly successful, reducing the death rate per 100 million miles driven to less than one-seventh of what it was in 1946.

The left sometimes focuses on “gun control,” which scares off gun owners and leads to more gun sales. A better framing is “gun safety” or “reducing gun violence,” and using auto safety as a model—constant efforts to make the products safer and to limit access by people who are most likely to misuse them.

What would a public health approach look like for guns if it were modeled after cars? It would include:

Background checks 22 percent of guns are obtained without one.

Protection orders Keep men who are subject to domestic violence protection orders from having guns

Ban under-21s A ban on people under 21 purchasing firearms (this is already the case in many states

Safe storage These include trigger locks as well as guns and ammunition stored separately, especially when children are in the house.

Straw purchases Tighter enforcement of laws on straw purchases of weapons, and some limits on how many guns can be purchased in a month.

Ammunition checks Experimentation with a one-time background check for anybody buying ammunition. 

End immunity End immunity for firearm companies. That’s a subsidy to a particular industry.

Ban bump stocks A ban on bump stocks of the kind used in Las Vegas to mimic automatic weapon fire.

Research ‘smart guns’ “Smart guns” fire only after a fingerprint or PIN is entered, or if used near a particular bracelet.

If someone steals my iPhone, it’s useless, and the same should be true of guns. Gun manufacturers made child-proof guns back in the 19th century (before dropping them), and it’s time to advance that technology today. Some combination of smart guns and safe storage would also reduce the number of firearms stolen in the U.S. each year, now about 200,000, and available to criminals.

We also need to figure out whether gun buybacks, often conducted by police departments, are cost-effective and help reduce violence. And we can experiment more with anti-gang initiatives, such as Cure Violence, that have a good record in reducing shootings.

It is true that guns are occasionally used to stop violence. But contrary to what the National Rifle Association suggests, this is rare. One study by the Violence Policy Center found that in 2012 there were 259 justifiable homicides by a private citizen using a firearm.

The evidence is overwhelming that overall more guns and more relaxed gun laws lead to more violent deaths and injuries. One study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine found that a gun in the house was associated with an increased risk of a gun death, particularly by suicide but also apparently by homicide.

although it is mass shootings that get our attention, they are not the main cause of loss of life. Much more typical is a friend who shoots another, a husband who kills his wife — or, most common of all, a man who kills himself. Skeptics will say that if people want to kill themselves, there’s nothing we can do. In fact, it turns out that if you make suicide a bit more difficult, suicide rates drop.

For skeptics who think that gun laws don’t make a difference, consider what happened in two states, Missouri and Connecticut. In 1995, Connecticut tightened licensing laws, while in 2007 Missouri eased gun laws.

The upshot? After tightening gun laws, firearm homicide rates dropped 40 percent in Connecticut. And after Missouri eased gun laws, gun homicide rates rose 25 percent.


Wednesday, May 18, 2022

White Supremacist Detector

 There are ways to tell if a person is a white supremacist

  1. if you think the “white race” is being replaced, shrinking, facing genocide or endangered. The number of white people is growing quite well.
  2. If you think minorities are taking jobs away from white people. Unemployment is much higher in POC than their white counterparts.
  3. If you think high crime rates are owing to illegal immigration. Undocumented immigrants are far less likely to commit crimes than citizens.
  4. If you think whites are getting poorer and rich minorities are lording it over them. The racial wealth gap is huge and increasing.
  5. If you think left-wing Democrats, or Jews, are bringing in immigrants in hopes of upping the Communist vote. Immigrants tend to be more conservative in their politics than not.
  6. If you think immigrants are taking jobs away from white people. Immigrants don't take jobs from native labor. By working at the low-wage jobs that white folks won't, they contribute to the expanding economy that helps everyone.
  7. If you think Brown and Black minorities are getting the upper hand over whites economically. The median incomes of POC are significantly smaller than whites.
  8.  if you think there is a “white race”. Whiteness is not a race but a status category that has changed dramatically in its conception over time. Poles and Jews and Lebanese and Italians have been considered non-white over our history. 

Monday, May 16, 2022

Video Games Improving Intelligence?

 There's a case to be made that video games may actually be boosting the intelligence of kids.

Over recent years researchers have started to home in on specific types of screen time and how they influence a variety of outcomes in children. The sheer heterogenous nature of digital screen use in the 21st century has made it impossible to simply state all screen time is bad.

So the very particular focus of this new research was to investigate the relationship between video game use and intelligence. To evaluate the admittedly abstract metric of “intelligence”, the researchers first accounted for socioeconomic backgrounds and the presence of genes related to intelligence.

Around 5,000 children were followed for two years. Aged between nine and 10 years at baseline, the participants completed the cognitive tests at the beginning and end of the study. Screen time was self-reported and divided into three categories: watching, socializing and gaming.

At the beginning of the study the researchers detected no association between time spent gaming and below- or above-average intelligence. Interestingly, however, high levels of watching TV and videos, or socializing online, was slightly linked to lower levels of intelligence at baseline. After two years the follow-up results were even more surprising.

“While children who played more video games at 10 years were on average no more intelligent than children who didn’t game, they showed the most gains in intelligence after two years, in both boys and girls,” write Klingberg and Sauce. “For example, a child who was in the top 17 percent in terms of hours spent gaming increased their IQ about 2.5 points more than the average child over two years.”

At follow-up social media use was not associated with any change in intelligence but watching TV or online videos could be linked to a small increase in intelligence. The researchers note this increase was too small to be statistically significant.

Friday, May 13, 2022

Election Problems

 Does it make sense to trust the people causing election problems to fix them?

A former elections supervisor in rural Coffee County, Ga., has told The Washington Post that she opened her offices to a businessman active in the election-denier movement to help investigate results she did not trust in the weeks after President Donald Trump’s 2020 defeat.

Trump had carried the conservative county by 40 points, but elections supervisor Misty Hampton said she remained suspicious of Joe Biden’s win in Georgia. Hampton made a video that went viral soon after the election, claiming to show that Dominion Voting System machines, the ones used in her county, could be manipulated. She said in interviews that she hoped the Georgia businessman who visited later, Scott Hall, and others who accompanied him could help identify vulnerabilities and prove “that this election was not done true and correct.”

Hampton said she could not remember when the visit occurred or what Hall and the others did when they were there. She said they did not enter a room that housed the county’s touch-screen voting machines, but she said she did not know whether they entered the room housing the election management system server, the central computer used to tally election results.

Voting experts said that, whether they accessed sensitive areas or not, Hampton’s actions underscore a growing risk to election security.

In the year and a half since the 2020 election, there has been steady drumbeat of revelations about alleged security breaches in local elections offices — and a growing concern among experts that officials who are sympathetic to claims of vote-rigging might be persuaded to undermine election security in the name of protecting it.


Too Clever By Half

Putin's failure to actually call it a war hurts his ability to wage it.

“I have served for five years in the army. My contract ends in June. I will serve my remaining time and then I am out of here,” he said. “I have nothing to be ashamed of. We aren’t officially in a state of war, so they could not force me to go.”

Dmitri’s refusal to fight highlights some of the military difficulties the Russian army has faced as a result of the Kremlin’s political decision not to formally declare war on Ukraine – preferring instead to describe the invasion, which will soon reach its fourth month, as a “special military operation”.

Under Russian military rules, troops who refuse to fight in Ukraine can face dismissal but cannot be prosecuted, said Mikhail Benyash, a lawyer who has been advising soldiers who choose that option.

Benyash said “hundreds and hundreds” of soldiers had been in touch with his team for advice on how they could avoid being sent to fight.

“Commanders try to threaten their soldiers with prison time if they dissent, but we tell the soldiers that they can simply say no,” Benyash said, adding that he was not aware of any criminal cases against soldiers who refused to fight. “There are no legal grounds to start a criminal case if a soldier refuses to fight while on Russian territory.”

Many soldiers, therefore, have chosen to be fired or transferred rather than going into “the meat grinder”, he said.

Algae Power

Using algae as a solar power source.

The new algae energy harvester placed a species of blue-green algae in a small container with some water, with the entire unit being about as big as a AA battery. Electrons are collected by an aluminum electrode and shuttled out to run an Arm Cortex M0+, a low-power microprocessor that’s commonly used in Internet of Things (IoT) devices.

The researchers left the system running in a “domestic” environment in “semi-outdoor” conditions (which we take to mean on someone’s porch), where it reliably produced electricity for the microprocessor long-term. The paper only describes the first six months, but the team says it’s still chugging away now after being left alone for a full year.

The algae-based energy harvester doesn’t generate a huge amount of power, but it’s enough for Internet of Things devices, which are increasing in number. Made of inexpensive and common components, and lasting much longer than traditional lithium batteries, these devices could make for a more environmentally friendly power source, particularly in remote areas.

The Price of Consolidation

 The US economy has undergone profound consolidation over the years and it's a problem.

their rise has come at the cost of intense concentration in corporate ownership, potentially supercharging the oligopolistic effects of already oligopolistic industries.

John Coates, a professor at Harvard Law School, has written that the growth of indexation and the Big Three means that in the future, about a dozen people at investment firms will hold power over most American companies. What happens when so few people control so much? Researchers have argued that this level of concentration will reduce companies’ incentives to compete with one another. This makes a kind of intuitive sense: For example, because Vanguard is the largest shareholder in both Ford and General Motors, why would it benefit from competition between the two? If every company is owned by the same small number of people, why fight as fiercely on prices, innovations and investments?

Indeed, there is some evidence that their concentrated ownership is associated with lower wages and employment and is already leading to price increases in some industries, including in airlines, pharmaceuticals and consumer goods. The firms dispute this. In a 2019 paper, Vanguard’s researchers said that when they studied lots of industries across a long period of time, “we do not find conclusive evidence” that common ownership led to higher profits.

Einer Elhauge, also of Harvard Law School, has written that concentrated ownership “poses the greatest anticompetitive threat of our time, mainly because it is the one anticompetitive problem we are doing nothing about.”

the more money that BlackRock or Vanguard or State Street manages, the more it can lower its fees for investors. This makes it difficult for new companies to enter the business, meaning that the Big Three’s hold on the market seems likely to persist. “I do not believe that such concentration would serve the national interest,” Bogle wrote.

 policymakers will have to move carefully to manage the dangers of concentration without limiting the benefits to investors of these firms’ low-cost funds. “No doubt getting the balance right will require judgment and experimentation,” he wrote.


Thursday, May 12, 2022

New Washington Laws and the crime rate

 A rise in crime has led many who are predisposed to hate progressive progress to place the blame on the recently enacted laws that govern police behavior. So here's a fact check.

What police can do:

  • Respond to mental health calls
  • Defend themselves
  • Pursue fleeing suspects
  • Approach and question people
What police cannot do:
  • Forcefully detain people based on vague suspicions
  • Start car chases over low-level crimes
  • Use military equipment
  • Use choke-holds or neck restraints
  • Skip de-escalation efforts

Systemic Corruption

Russia is not only an autocracy. It's a country built on systemic corruption. You have to work the angles simply to survive.  And it's the kind of system to which Trump and his Republicans aspire.

the glitzy boat is a usefully concrete reminder of what Russia experts have said for years: that it is impossible to understand Putin’s regime without understanding the corruption that has by turns created, fueled, shaped, constrained it. And that may, one day, prove to be its undoing.

Mapping the details of that corruption would be the work of a lifetime. But two simple insights can help you grasp the big picture. The first is true of systemic corruption wherever it occurs: It is not primarily a problem of individual immorality, but of a collective action trap. And the second is true of Russia: It got stuck in that trap as a result of its flawed, and ultimately incomplete, transition to democracy in the 1990s.

We tend to think of corruption as a failure of morality, when a greedy person decides to benefit by steering public resources toward private gain. But while that’s not exactly untrue, it misses the most important thing: namely, that corruption is a group activity. You need bribe-payers and bribe-takers, resource-diverters and resource-resellers, look-the-other-wayers and demand-a-share-of-the-takers.

When that kind of corrupt network behavior becomes widespread, it creates its own parallel system of rewards — and punishments.

“What is different with systemic corruption is that it’s the expected behavior,” said Anna Persson, a political scientist at the University of Gothenburg, Sweden, who studies corruption. “These expectations make it very difficult for all individuals, actually, to stand against corruption, because it’s very costly in all different ways to resist that kind of system.”

Abortion or Inflation

What's it gonna be for you?  We can worry about inflation or women suffering and dying.

One week after the leak of a draft Supreme Court opinion that would eliminate the constitutional right to abortion, Republican candidates and strategists are increasingly confident that such a decision would not seriously harm the GOP’s chances of regaining House and Senate majorities come November, as Democrats have suggested it might.

That belief is rooted in reams of polling, nearly all of it conducted before the leak, showing that economic challenges, particularly runaway inflation, are by far the most powerful force motivating voters this year, followed by crime and immigration — issues where Republicans believe they will have an enduring advantage. And, so far, they see scant evidence that reproductive rights are set to dislodge those priorities, given the often-muted reaction in states that have already moved to restrict abortion rights.

Wednesday, May 11, 2022

Stimulus Checks and Inflation

 Out of the 8% inflation rate, 3% is attributed to COVID relief checks. But the models say it will come down as recent shocks stabilise. 

We have explored alternative scenarios for the potential inflationary effects of ARP through resource pressures generated by new federal spending and its possible impact on the public’s beliefs about the federal debt. With most of our models, we find that resource pressures generally have small and transitory effects on inflation. However, one model grounded in data before 1990 shows there can be larger and more persistent effects. We also find that if ARP generates a change in beliefs about the likelihood that a portion of the federal debt will be inflated away, the effects on inflation will be small as long as individuals do not believe the chances of a switch in policy regime are high.

In another story, Janet Yellen explains:

Scroll back up to restore default view.

U.S. Treasury's Yellen says Fed can bring down inflation without causing recession

·2 min read

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that she believes the Federal Reserve can bring down inflation without causing a recession because of a strong U.S. job market and household balance sheets, low debt costs and a strong banking sector

Yellen told a U.S. House of Representatives Financial Services Committee hearing on Thursday that "all of those things suggest that the Fed has a path to bring down inflation without causing a recession, and I know it will be their objective to try to accomplish that."

Scroll back up to restore default view.

U.S. Treasury's Yellen says Fed can bring down inflation without causing recession

·2 min read

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that she believes the Federal Reserve can bring down inflation without causing a recession because of a strong U.S. job market and household balance sheets, low debt costs and a strong banking sector

Yellen told a U.S. House of Representatives Financial Services Committee hearing on Thursday that "all of those things suggest that the Fed has a path to bring down inflation without causing a recession, and I know it will be their objective to try to accomplish that."

Yellen said during the hearing on the Financial Stability Oversight Council's work that inflation was the "No.1 economic issue" facing the nation and the Biden administration.

"It's having a substantial adverse impact on many vulnerable households And we are laser-focused on addressing inflation," Yellen said, repeating the Biden administration's initiatives to hold down gasoline prices through large releases of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and efforts to unblock congested U.S. ports.

She deflected several attempts from Republican lawmakers to try to coax her to blame high inflation on the Biden administration's $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief spending package last year.

Yellen said that various factors were fueling inflation, including spikes in energy prices due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and continued pandemic-driven supply chain problems, and other countries were also experiencing high inflation.

"It does show that there are factors beyond spending in the United States that are critical to inflation," she said.


Protesting tips

 What to bring, what to wear.

(The ACLU website’s “Know Your Protest Rights” page offers more details.)

“You don’t need a permit to protest in response to breaking news,” Eidelman said. “You also don’t need a permit to march in the streets or along sidewalks, as long as you’re not obstructing car or pedestrian traffic, or access to buildings. If you don’t have a permit, police officers can order you to move to the side of the street or sidewalk to let others pass or for safety reasons.”

If you are lawfully present in a public space, you have the right to photograph anything in plain view, which includes federal buildings and any police present. If you believe your rights were violated during a protest, take a moment to get contact information from witnesses, photograph any injuries and write down all the details you can remember.

the main job of the police during a protest should be to protect your right to protest and de-escalate any threat of violence.

“If you get stopped by police, ask if you’re free to go,” Eidelman advised. “If they say yes, calmly walk away. If you get arrested, you have a right to ask why. Otherwise, say you wish to remain silent and ask for a lawyer immediately. Don’t sign, say or agree to anything without a lawyer present.”


Dress for safety

“Even though we’re going into a hot season, you should still be doing a long sleeve so your body is covered as much as possible for protection from both the sun and tear gas,” Ernest Coverson, campaign manager for Amnesty International’s End Gun Violence, previously told HuffPost. “You want long pants, comfortable shoes ― something with a tie-up versus a slip-in ― and nothing loose that can get snagged on things, yanked or pulled.”

Coverson recommended against applying any oils or lotions, as they can “intensify the lingering effect” of agents like pepper spray or tear gas, which can cause skin rashes and burns, tearing and burning eyes, blurred vision, chest tightness, nose swelling and other irritations.

In addition to comfortable shoes and clothes that cover your skin, Amnesty International advises wearing a bandana soaked in water, lemon juice or vinegar to cover your nose and mouth, which can aid in breathing during chemical exposure. Bring a plastic bag with a change of clothes in case of contamination, and wear glasses instead of contact lenses.

Tie your hair back and wear a face mask or face shield, which can offer protection from COVID as well as other potentially harmful exposures. Cover identifying features like tattoos and try to wear generally nondescript clothing. And of course, check the weather forecast.

what you bring

When packing your bag before a protest, keep health and safety in mind. Make sure you eat and hydrate at home, and bring extra snacks and water to drink. A water bottle with a squirt top is also useful to wash your skin and eyes if you’re exposed to tear gas or other chemicals.

Bring cash and coins, carry a form of identification and write your emergency contact information on your arm or elsewhere on your body. Medication and first aid supplies are also helpful.

If you decide to bring your cellphone, disable the face or touch ID modes so that no one can force you to unlock it without your consent. Experts also advise backing up your data beforehand and turning on Airplane Mode.

Don’t go to a protest alone, if possible. Try to buddy up with someone, meet up with an affinity group or at least let your loved ones know where you’ll be in case something happens.

And don’t forget to make a sign with the message you’d like to share in the protest.

Stay vigilant

From violent attacks from counter-protesters to instances of police brutality, there are many ways for demonstrations that start out peaceful to become unsafe.

As you participate in a protest, be vigilant. Pay attention to the people around you and what they’re doing. If someone is exhibiting distress or panic, try to calm them or help them find safety.

Locate the nearest exits in case you or your peers need to quickly leave the demonstration. Take note of any cars with drivers nearby.

Resist the temptation to engage with counter-protesters, who often shout and hold signs with inflammatory messages with the goal of creating conflict. Don’t indulge them.

Try to remain calm and focused, and pay attention to any instructions or requests from the protest leaders.

Be prepared to deal with tear gas or pepper spray

Police have been known to deploy pepper spray and tear gas against demonstrators. Although they are chemically different agents, both have irritating effects.

In addition to the previously mentioned preparations, you can learn what to do if you’re exposed to an irritant like this.

The best way to deal with pepper spray or tear gas is to flush it out of your eyes with water and remove yourself from the area. Blink rapidly and resist the urge to touch or rub your eyes.

Squirt your water bottle into your eyes (being mindful not to transfer more chemicals from the surrounding skin into your eyes) as soon as you can, but then try to get to a sink or shower for more thorough rinsing.

We “run liters of water, potentially, into [a patient’s] eyes until they are feeling better and we feel like the chemical is out,” Dr. Diane Calello, executive and medical director of the New Jersey Poison Center, previously told HuffPost.

In addition to cleaning your eyes, try to cough, spit and blow your nose to get as much of the chemical out of your body as possible. And if the burning and itching persists for several hours ― even after you’ve showered, changed and otherwise decontaminated yourself — consider seeking medical attention.

Coming into contact with tear gas or pepper spray can be painful and traumatic, so once you’re finished washing it out and otherwise tending to your physical health, take some time for other forms of self-care as you process and recover from the experience.