Wednesday, June 13, 2007

Historical Context

At the dawn of the 20th Century, Afghanistan a client state of the British Empire. A series of wars between British-supported factions and Czarist Russian-supported factions ended in 1919. While the Bolsheviks consolidated power in Russia, Afghanistan was left finally in the British sphere of influence. Yet the Brits were weakened by the costs of World War I. Amanullah Khan was able to exploit that weakness to get the Brits to agree to allow Afghanistan control over its own foreign affairs as well as the domestic ones. While the country remained a player between the Russian and British giants it now played the game on its own terms and was often able to make gains from the competition.

A unique feature of country was that only the outside world saw the eastern border, the Durand Line, because it was drawn on their maps. To the Afghans, it was an unnatural boundary and simply didn't exist. The line bisected the Pashtun tribal lands and the these folks kept moved around in those areas just as they had been doing for millenia. Even India and later Pakistan tacitly recognized this reality by ceding the Northwest Frontier Province a great deal of autonomy. Given that the Pashtuns were some of the fiercest fighters on the planet and were on their own extreme turf, the cost/benefit of exercising complete control simply was not there.

Amunullah Khan overplayed his hand by trying to modernize his country too fast. He was forced to abdicate after a decade in 1929. His successor was assassinated in 1933 to be followed by Zahir Shah. Under Zahir Afghanistan saw what may be its longest period of stability for 40 years but it paid a price economically. During that time the country's infrastructure was abysmally neglected, famines killed thousands, and the non-Pashtun population was persecuted. While Zahir was out of the country getting some eye surgery in 1973 his brother-in-law took over with a bloodless coup. In 5 years he was killed by a puppet communist movement. The Russians were back in a surrogate form. In another years time, 1979, the Russians dropped all pretense and occupied the country with full military force.

Now the honors of the Great Game moved from the British to the Americans as just another theater of the Cold War. The Americans, in partnership with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, aggressively funded the mujahideen resistance that eventually gave the Russians a lesson in costs and benefits. After the Russians withdrew in 1989 they set up another surrogate government with some of the stronger warlords. That lasted about 3 years until 1992 when a key warlord decided to go his own way. From 1992 to 1996 it was warlord time with factional fighting all around.

Next, the Taliban.

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