Thursday, August 22, 2002

This should be another warning to the attack-Iraq-adventurists. In practical simulations assaults on cities by well-equipped and well-trained Marines have shown many weaknesses in our ability to to carry out urban combat. If Saddam's troops are able to successfully set up a defense in an urban environment, our military capabilities there are simply not-ready-for-prime-time. We have things to learn and adjustments to make to both equipment and tactics. There are still problems that we haven't solved after Mogudishu.

There are then two clear objectives that must be met in order to assure military success against Saddam: keep the fight out of the cities and avoid a long period of hostilities. If we can't do that, way too many good soldiers will be sacrificed.

I still am of the mind that until Saddam holds a smoking gun we should not mount any attack. I think that as assurred destruction deterrent is the best assurance that he will behave. I am aware that there are some reports of operations already underway. Be that as it may I think it better strategy to leave him some running room. If he has reason to believe that he has nothing more to lose he will do everything he can to unleash his WMD. Only when we are sure that he can't get his hand to the button should we close the trap.

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