Algorithm Predicts Social Unrest

 Coupcast has been doing this for a while. The January 6 insurrection has allowed them to tweak their assessment of the prospect of unrest in the US.

with new data from Jan. 6, researchers reprogrammed the model to take into account factors it had traditionally underplayed, like the role of a leader encouraging a mob, while reducing traditionally important factors like long-term democratic history.

Its risk assessment of electoral violence in the United States has gone up as a result. And although data scientists say America’s vulnerability still trails, say, a fragile democracy like Ukraine or a backsliding one like Turkey, it’s not nearly as low as it once was.