Thursday, September 23, 2004
Allawi before Congress
For the sake of the citizens of Iraq and the safety of our forces it would be nice if what Allawi said were true. It will make it that much easier for us to disengage from Iraq. But there are other indicators (like the National Intelligence Estimate) that such a rosy picture is disregarding some unpleasant facts. For Allawi himself it will be interesting to see to what degree his people see him as an American puppet instead of a genuine Iraqi leader. Until the stabilization effort becomes more an international effort, this will be a big political mark against Allawi for the home crowd.
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Until Allawi has sufficient strength to effectively defy American influence he has the "puppet" vulnerability. Once the de facto Iraqi government weans itself from American-only power and broadens its base of foreign support it can make a legitimate claim to being independent. One hopes that it is moving in that direction.
I can also see that keeping America engaged plays into the hands of Allawi's domestic opposition. They have a tremendous incentive to be less than peaceful in order to keep Allawi associated with the hated occupation. Any Iraqi government's best hope is for the elections to give them enough legitimacy to enable them to tell the Americans to "sod off".
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