Monday, September 20, 2004
Novak: Quick exit from Iraq is likely
This sounds terrible. But once Bush wins the election what's to stop him from making an even bigger mess in Iraq? We know that he will say whatever it takes to get elected but he will feel no obligation to keep his word once he has nothing to lose. That's the really scary thing with a 2nd-term, lame-duck president. He doesn't even have to pretend that he cares.
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It all depends on what is really happening on the ground in Iraq. Some believe that things are going fairly well in Iraq despite the news reports emphasizing the violence. Others think there are reasons to believe that the news reports are down-playing the level of violence and anarchy. One has to ask whether a new administration would be more or less realistic than the current one about the actual facts of the matter. I'm inclined to believe that the current administration has no better grasp of the facts than they had when they started this war.
With Bush in office a withdrawal would be a strictly American action. But with Kerry in office it would be a effort coordinated with other nations that are more palatable to the indigenous population. That's a big difference. The difference perhaps between Saigon and post-war Germany.
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